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<h1>Study: Internet could run out of capacity in two years</h1><p class="byline">By Grant Gross, IDG News Service</p><p>Consumer and corporate use of the Internet could overload thecurrent capacity and lead to brown-outs in two years unless backboneproviders invest billions of dollars in new infrastructure, accordingto a study released Monday.</p><p>A flood of new video and other Web content could overwhelm theInternet by 2010 unless backbone providers invest up to US$137 billionin new capacity, more than double what service providers plan toinvest, according to the study, by Nemertes Research Group, anindependent analysis firm. In North America alone, backbone investmentsof $42 billion to $55 billion will be needed in the next three to fiveyears to keep up with demand, Nemertes said.</p><p>The study is the first to “apply Moore’s Law (or something very likeit) to the pace of application innovation on the ‘Net,” the study says.“Our findings indicate that although core fiber and switching/routingresources will scale nicely to support virtually any conceivable userdemand, Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America,will likely cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the nextthree to five years.”</p><p>The study confirms long-time concerns of the Internet InnovationAlliance (IIA), an advocacy group focused on upgrading U.S. broadbandnetworks, said Bruce Mehlman, co-chairman of the group. The group, withmembers including AT&T, Level 3 Communications, Corning, Americansfor Tax Reform and the American Council of the Blind, has been warningpeople of the coming “exaflood” of video and other Web content thatcould clog its pipes. </p><p>The study gives “good, hard, unique data” on the IIA concerns aboutnetwork capacity, Mehlman said. The Nemertes study suggests demand forWeb applications such as streaming and interactive video, peer-to-peerfile transfers and music downloads will accelerate, creating a demandfor more capacity. Close to three-quarters of U.S. Internet userswatched an average of 158 minutes of video in May and viewed more than8.3 billion video streams, according to research from comScore, ananalysis group.</p><p>Internet users will create 161 exabytes of new data this year, andthis exaflood is a positive development for Internet users andbusinesses, IIA says. An exabyte is 1 quintillion bytes or about 1.1billion gigabytes. One exabyte is the equivalent of about 50,000 yearsof DVD quality video.</p><p>Carriers and policy makers need to be aware of this demand, Mehlman added.</p><p>“Video has unleased an explosion of Internet content,” Mehlman said.“We think the exaflood is generally not well understood, and itsinvestment implications not well defined.”</p><p>The responsibility for keeping up with this growing demand lies withbackbone providers and national policy makers, added Mehlman, alsoexecutive director of the Technology CEO Council, a trade group, and aformer assistant secretary of technology policy in the U.S. Departmentof Commerce.</p><p>“It takes a digital village,” he said. “Certainly, infrastructureproviders have plenty to do. You’ve seen billions in investment, andyou’re seeing ongoing billions more.”</p><p>U.S. lawmakers can also help in several ways, he said. For example,the U.S. Congress could require that home contractors who receivegovernment assistance for building affordable housing include broadbandconnections in their houses, he said. Congress could also provide taxcredits to help broadband providers add more capacity, he said.</p><p>Consumers also pay high taxes for telecommunication services,averaging about 13 percent on some telecom services, similar to the taxrate on tobacco and alcohol, Mehlman said. One tax on telecom servicehas remained in place since the 1898 Spanish-American War, when fewU.S. residents had telephones, he noted.</p><p>“We think it’s a mistake to treat telecom like a luxury and tax it like a sin,” he said.</p>
<h1>Study: Internet could run out of capacity in two years</h1><p class="byline">By Grant Gross, IDG News Service</p><p>Consumer and corporate use of the Internet could overload thecurrent capacity and lead to brown-outs in two years unless backboneproviders invest billions of dollars in new infrastructure, accordingto a study released Monday.</p><p>A flood of new video and other Web content could overwhelm theInternet by 2010 unless backbone providers invest up to US$137 billionin new capacity, more than double what service providers plan toinvest, according to the study, by Nemertes Research Group, anindependent analysis firm. In North America alone, backbone investmentsof $42 billion to $55 billion will be needed in the next three to fiveyears to keep up with demand, Nemertes said.</p><p>The study is the first to “apply Moore’s Law (or something very likeit) to the pace of application innovation on the ‘Net,” the study says.“Our findings indicate that although core fiber and switching/routingresources will scale nicely to support virtually any conceivable userdemand, Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America,will likely cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the nextthree to five years.”</p><p>The study confirms long-time concerns of the Internet InnovationAlliance (IIA), an advocacy group focused on upgrading U.S. broadbandnetworks, said Bruce Mehlman, co-chairman of the group. The group, withmembers including AT&T, Level 3 Communications, Corning, Americansfor Tax Reform and the American Council of the Blind, has been warningpeople of the coming “exaflood” of video and other Web content thatcould clog its pipes. </p><p>The study gives “good, hard, unique data” on the IIA concerns aboutnetwork capacity, Mehlman said. The Nemertes study suggests demand forWeb applications such as streaming and interactive video, peer-to-peerfile transfers and music downloads will accelerate, creating a demandfor more capacity. Close to three-quarters of U.S. Internet userswatched an average of 158 minutes of video in May and viewed more than8.3 billion video streams, according to research from comScore, ananalysis group.</p><p>Internet users will create 161 exabytes of new data this year, andthis exaflood is a positive development for Internet users andbusinesses, IIA says. An exabyte is 1 quintillion bytes or about 1.1billion gigabytes. One exabyte is the equivalent of about 50,000 yearsof DVD quality video.</p><p>Carriers and policy makers need to be aware of this demand, Mehlman added.</p><p>“Video has unleased an explosion of Internet content,” Mehlman said.“We think the exaflood is generally not well understood, and itsinvestment implications not well defined.”</p><p>The responsibility for keeping up with this growing demand lies withbackbone providers and national policy makers, added Mehlman, alsoexecutive director of the Technology CEO Council, a trade group, and aformer assistant secretary of technology policy in the U.S. Departmentof Commerce.</p><p>“It takes a digital village,” he said. “Certainly, infrastructureproviders have plenty to do. You’ve seen billions in investment, andyou’re seeing ongoing billions more.”</p><p>U.S. lawmakers can also help in several ways, he said. For example,the U.S. Congress could require that home contractors who receivegovernment assistance for building affordable housing include broadbandconnections in their houses, he said. Congress could also provide taxcredits to help broadband providers add more capacity, he said.</p><p>Consumers also pay high taxes for telecommunication services,averaging about 13 percent on some telecom services, similar to the taxrate on tobacco and alcohol, Mehlman said. One tax on telecom servicehas remained in place since the 1898 Spanish-American War, when fewU.S. residents had telephones, he noted.</p><p>“We think it’s a mistake to treat telecom like a luxury and tax it like a sin,” he said.</p>
